Every case follows the same structure: problem we spotted, signal EdgeVisor surfaced, result after resolution, and lesson for the next trade. The grid loads published rows from our case-study index (curated in Mission Control or seeded migrations) — not auto-generated from every resolved pick yet.
Before a major US election debate, the market stayed anchored near a stable baseline and underpriced the probability of a fast intraday repricing after headline moments.
Read full case →A Solana ETF-related contract was priced around a neutral band despite a sequence of filings and commentary that historically leads to gradual upward repricing.
Read full case →After an energy price shock, prediction market odds for a near-term Fed hold stayed too low relative to cross-market macro signals from rates and inflation expectations.
Read full case →The market priced US entry into Iran at 8% YES — a level that looks dismissively low given historical base rates, event coupling with ongoing Middle East tensions, and the geopolitical context of 2026.
Read full case →Multiple Polymarket contracts on Bitcoin ETF milestones were priced between 55-65% YES, but the underlying probability structure showed much higher confidence when decomposed into conditional events.
Read full case →Prediction markets priced the March 2026 Fed rate cut at 42%, while EdgeVisor's macro analyst flagged a structural divergence: bond market implied probabilities, Fed funds futures, and employment data all pointed to 60%+.
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